How Long Will I Live?

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The life expectancy calculator is based on a detailed statistical analysis led by Professor Dean Foster while at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. The Tool is based on an NIH-AARP dataset of approximately 550,000 members of the American Association for Retired Persons (AARP) living in one of six states (California, Florida, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, North Carolina, or Louisiana) or in two metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Georgia or Detroit, Michigan). The data was received in response to a proposal made to the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study governing committee. The data was anonymized for research purposes. Survey participants responded to a diet and health survey in 1996-1997, when they were between 50 and 70 years old, and whose status, living or dead, was determined at least 12.9 years later, the last available follow-up date having been December 31, 2009. At the end of the study, either the date of their death, if they died during the study, or the fact that they were alive at the end, was recorded.

Three and a half million people were sent surveys. The cohort consisted of 566,398 respondents. After cleaning the data (by removing respondents with extreme values of height, weight, caloric consumption, alcohol consumption, and BMI), there were 540,677 survey responses left. Respondents whose dates of death were the same day as their reported survey responses were then removed. Last, the researchers focused statistical modeling on those respondents who did not report currently having had a chronic disease at the time of the survey, which further removed 133,166 respondents. This left 407,489 total respondents. Of these, 235,543 were men and 171,946 were women.

Some variables that have bearing on your longevity are excluded. By using the NIH-AARP data, the creators of the life expectancy calculator analyzed over 500,000 responses, making this one of the most comprehensive longevity studies ever. However, not every variable that could impact your longevity was captured and therefore not every parameter is an input in the calculator.

The calculated median is only a small part of the story. The calculator provides an estimate for your expected lifespan (e.g. 76 years). People often focus on this one number. The reality is that you have nearly a 50% chance of living longer than this and nearly a 50% chance of not living this long. Said differently, even though the life expectancy we provide is a well reasoned and data-driven guess, it’s unlikely to be exactly right. Considering your probability of surviving to certain ages provides a more complete picture of your longevity. No one can guess your longevity with precision (including us) and it's best to prepare for a whole range of plausible scenarios.

The calculator assumes you do not have any terminal illnesses or serious diseases. The data we analyzed to construct this model excluded those survey respondents with terminal illnesses or serious disease, other than diabetes.

Past performance doesn't determine future results. The data does not assume any scientific or medical breakthroughs that would significantly increase longevity, despite the fact that billions of dollars is dedicated to just such efforts every year. If a cure for a particularly fatal and widespread disease is found, for example, we'd expect to see life expectancies increase significantly, resulting in historical outcomes not having the predictive power that we expected them to.

The data is taken from the Society of Actuaries (SOA) RP-2014 Mortality Tables.

If you expect to live longer than average, delaying Social Security benefits until age 70 can maximize your lifetime income, as benefits grow by 8% annually after full retirement age. If you anticipate a shorter lifespan, claiming earlier may allow you to collect more overall. Your health, financial needs, and other income sources should guide the decision.

It's important you plan your retirement with your life expectancy in mind. It's impossible to know how long you'll live, but planning for a long retirement will give you the most peace of mind. Some experts recommend preparing for a retirement age that you have a 25% chance of reaching, while others say that preparing for the age you have a 10% chance of reaching is most prudent.

There are many helpful resources. Some of our favorites are Stanford Center on Longevity, National Institute on Aging, White House Conference on Aging, Agewave, and American Society on Aging.